Futurist Writer Lei Kalina writes her tongue-in-cheek musings and ramblings on the growing worldwide phenomenon of the growth of the Future Culture in the 21st Century
Future Culture In The 21st Century
Futures Studies, Foresight, or Futurology , according to Wikipedia, is the science, art and practice of postulating possible, probable, and preferable futures and the worldviews and myths that underlie them. Futures studies (colloquially called "Futures" by many of the field's practitioners) seeks to understand what is likely to continue, what is likely to change, and what is novel. Part of the discipline thus seeks a systematic and pattern-based understanding of past and present, and to determine the likelihood of future events and trends. Futures is an interdisciplinary field, studying yesterday's and today's changes, and aggregating and analyzing both lay and professional strategies, and opinions with respect to tomorrow.
Thursday, June 26, 2014
"Bionic Olympics" for Global Parathletes By October 2016
WHEN CELEBRATED CASE AND QUADRIPLEGIC PATIENT Cathy Hutchinson, paralyzed from the neck down seventeen years ago and
later dubbed by international scientists
as “Patient S3” last 2012 -- successfully
picked up a flask of coffee and
sipped through its straw via thought-controlled robotic arms and brain-computer interface -- advanced
science enthusiasts knew that the best
is about to come.
Hutchinson’s case was an exceptional breakthrough, which celebrated the success of enabling people with severe paralysis to maneuver thought-controlled robotic arms,
using brain-to-computer neural implants, which the
technological process, called BrainGate II -- the
updated version used on Hutchinson -- made
possible.
In the initial
stages six years ago (2006), paralyzed patients could have only
moved a curser on the computer screen monitor using their thoughts. Whats
the secret behind this breakthrough? No secret. A
surgically-implanted electrode on the patient's brain the size of a baby aspirin
interprets the electric signals it relays -- enabling the movements to
take place.
Lead researcher and neuroscientist John Donoghue from Brown University, noting that “we now show that people with
longstanding, profound paralysis can move complex real-world machines like
robotic arms, and not just virtual devices, like a dot on a computer
BrainGateII as process later transforms into a muti-million
company with its noble mission “to improve of the quality
of life for all disabled humans,
(and) additionally seeking “ to
increase the usage of BrainGate related technology in both medical and
non-medical applications and facilitate innovation in invasive and non-invasive
brain research.”
Further, it
is geared “to create technology that will allow
severely disabled individuals—including those with traumatic spinal cord injury
and loss of limbs—to communicate and control common everyday functions
literally through thought… teaming up
with a seasoned team of enterpreneurs
aiming to advance movement through thought alone “ achieved through partnership
with leading academic institutions institutions, corporations, and various
non-profit and government organizations working on the research, science, and
development of applied commercial technology.”
Meantime, the likes of Cathy Hutchinson who were
disabled by accidents or by birth have something more to look forward to.
By October 2016,
all roads lead to the first-ever
Cybathlon --- an international sporting event
for for parathletes wherein
athletic events actively encourage the
use and development of pioneering
robotic technology -- with the use of leg prosthetics , powered exoskeletons and powered wheelchairs, brain-computer
interface , and functional electrical stimulation
(FES) via bike races, and more.
A clear first for all-time: to be held at the Kolping Arena
in Kloten,
Zurich, Switzerland, wherein parathletes worldwide can be given the opportunity
to compete internationally using
robot-assisted technology and showcase
the maximum performance and practical functionality of artificial intelligence for persons with
disabilities (PWD).
+7
Photos via YouTube Screengrab From powered exoskeleton races to competitions using brain power (illustrated), the first Olympics for bionic athletes, called the Cybathlon, will take place in Switzerland in October 2016
Event organizers ,
including Swiss National
Competence Center of Research in Robotics (NCCR Robotics) , one of the main goals of the Cybathlon is
“to provide a platform for the development of novel-assistive technologies that are useful for daily life… Through the organization of the Cybathlon we
want to help removing barriers between the public, people with
disabilities and science. It is hoped that the competition will
spur interest in human performance-enhancing technology.”
Prizes will be awarded to both the winning athletes in each event
and to the company behind the software or technological device used. Organized on behalf of the Swiss National Competence Center of
Research in Robotics (NCCR Robotics), the competition is open to technology
already available on the market, or to research development projects by
laboratories.
Earlier reports mentioned that a variety of disciplines would be applying state-of-the-art technology for the most
modern “powered knee prostheses, wearable arm prostheses, powered
exoskeletons, powered wheelchairs, electrically stimulated muscles and novel
brain-computer interfaces… Even totally paralyzed people will be able to take
part, using brain-computer interface.”
“The assistive devices can include commercially available
products provided by companies, but also prototypes developed by research labs.
There will be two medals for each competition, one for the pilot, who is
driving the device, and one for the provider of the device.”
In a recent BBC news report, University of Switzerland Professor Robert
Riener, also part of the event
organizing team, explained that "much
too often, there is
disconnect between patients and
technology. The idea is that we want to
push development of assistive technologies towards devices that patients can
really use in everyday life. While some
of the current technologies look very fancy but are a long way from being practical
and user-friendly, we would want
technology to be useful for daily living
for these persons with disabilities.”
“Further
, we are allowing use of
technology in this event, which has
previously been excluded from the Paralympics. By making it a public
event, we want to get rid of the borders
between patients, society and the technology community. Our other main aim for
the games is to allow people to compete who have never had the opportunity
before,” Reiner says.
From website Sophimania.lamula.pe
+7
Photo via YouTube Screengrab
Pilots with leg amputation will be equipped with machine operated prostheses and will have to successfully complete a race course (pictured) as quickly as possible, which will include obstacles such as slopes, a staircase, cobblestones and a seesaw
Photo via YouTube Screengrab
In the Powered Exoskeleton Race (pictured), pilots with complete thoracic or lumbar Spinal Cord Injuries (SCI) will be equipped with actuated exoskeletal devices, which will enable them to walk along a particular race course
Meantime,The Verge News reports:
“Unlike the Olympics, where athletes can use prosthetics only to
make themselves as good as able-bodied athletes and not better, Cybathlon
competitors are encouraged to use the best technology. Dual prizes will be
awarded, one to the athlete and one to the company that created the prosthetic,
device, or software.”
"The rules of the competition are made in such way that the
novel technology will give the pilot an advantage over a pilot that would use a
comparable but less advanced or conventional assistive technology," the
organization says on its website. "There will be as few technical
constraints as possible, in order to encourage the device providers to develop
novel and powerful solutions."
“Of course, the races will be slower than their Olympic
counterparts, but they're also arguably more mind-boggling. The exoskeleton
competitors, for example, must walk over a slope, up steps, around pillars,
over a see-saw, across a narrow beam, then pick up a bag and carry it, go
around tight corners, and then sprint to the finish line.”
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Photo via YouTube Screengrab
Pilots with forearm or upper arm amputations will be equipped with actuated exoprosthetic devices and will have to successfully complete two hand-arm task courses as quickly as possible (illustrated). A close-up camera view will be used to life-display the shoot on the stadium screens. At least two participants will start at the same time on two identical courses, to make the event more exciting
Parathletes at Cybathlon,
however, will be called “pilots”,
using exoskeletons like those by Ekso Bionics, to
trudge through obstacle courses,
powered wheelchairs will be seeing action as well, while
FES ( Functional Electrical
Stimulation) of nerves for paralyzed limbs
assist the parathletes competing in the bike race. Meantime,
arm amputees use robotic prosthetics “to navigate a wire
course as quickly and nimbly as possible without touching the wire.”
SingularityHub.com further reports:
“Robotic prosthetics (arm and leg),
like those from the Rehabilitation Institute of Chicago and Case Western
Reserve University, use computers to recognize electrical patterns in muscles
and nerves and allow patients to control bionic limbs with thoughts alone. Some
are even beginning to send rudimentary sensory touch information back to the brain.”
“The Cybathlon
wouldn’t be possible without these technologies, but perhaps it wouldn’t be
quite as urgent if they weren’t still confined to labs and clinical trials. The
hope is the Cybathlon can add another incentive to speed things along.”
+7
The Powered Wheelchair Race (illustrated) will allow pilots with different disability levels (e.g. quadriplegics, paraplegics, amputees) to be equipped with power wheelchairs, which will enable them to steer along a particular race course. The course will be defined by cones between which the pilots will have to manoeuvre the chair both forward and backward. In addition, obstacles of different sizes will be used.
+7
THE SIX DISCIPLINES AT THE 2016 CYBATHLON
Powered arm prostheses race: Pilots with arm amputations will be equipped with robotic prostheses and will have to successfully complete two hand-arm task courses as quickly as possible.
One of the challenges will see pilots holding a wire loop which they will use to navigate a metal wire without touching it. Another race will see participants pick up differently shaped objects in order to demonstrate the dexterity of their prostheses.
Brain computer interface race: Pilots will be equipped with technology that lets them control an avatar in a racing game played on computers using their brains. They will race along a track with obstacles.
Functional electrical stimulation bike race: Pilots with spinal cord injuries will use functional electrical stimulation devices, which will enable them to perform a pedaling movement on a cycling device that drives them on a circular course. There will be two categories - a sprint race, over a distance of 200metres and an endurance race over the distance of 1000metres.
Powered leg prostheses race: Pilots with transfemoral amputation will be equipped with machine operated prostheses and will have to successfully complete a race course as quickly as possible, which will include obstacles such as slopes, a staircase, cobblestones and seesaw.
Powered exoskelton race: Pilots with spinal cord injuries (SCI) will use powered exoskeletons to negotiate a race course with obstacles of around 100metres.
Powered wheelchair race: Participants will use powered wheelchairs to steer along a race course with slopes and uneven surfaces as well as a slalom
Filipina futurist writer Lei Kalina --- from the Manila Futurists Society --- treads and swims through the mind-boggling twists and turns of newfound discoveries, new ideas, latest trends & innovations, the freshest futurist news on the future of global science and technology, scientific advancements, environment & nature conservation, health & medicine, business & society, the future of Manila and the future of the world!
Futurist Filipina Writer Lei Kalina is chief strategist, media manager and major think tank for publicity and media relations projects of Powerhaus Media Professionals, moderator and events organizer for the Manila Futurists Society. She is also currently working with JPMorgan Chase Philippines.
She's a true blue Aquarian, listen: "Great talker. Attractive and passionate. Headstrong and Stubborn. Laidback. Knows how to have fun. Really good at almost anything. Unpredictable. Outgoing. Ultimately Crazy when she wants to be. Down to earth. Addictive. Attractive. Loud. Loves attention. Loves being in long relationships. Talkative. Not one to mess with. Rare to find. Good when found."
Lei Kalina (Maria Leah Bartolome Kalina)is a Filipino enthusiast of Futures Studies and advanced science, science & technology self-confessed techie geek and veteran media practitioner, and now also going back to one of her earliest loves -- long-distance running.
Lei is a veteran in Philippine media : having established a career as published writer and columnist for various publications, freelance journalist for newspapers ;and worked as news writer & segment producer for ABC 5 News and Public Affairs,ABS-CBN's "The Inside Story",GMA7 and RPN9.
She is also publicity expert & media campaign manager for clients of Powerhaus Media Professionals.
She is at the helm, leading the pack for the Manila Futurists Society --- a community of futurists which is an off-shoot of USA futurist groups.
When you ride through the burgeoning new waves of the future --- surf through it, swim and love it, dive and snorkel.... and discover that the future is beautiful, free and full of wonder
Lei and her Powerhaus Media
Lei Kalina's Powerhaus Media Professionals, since 1999 until the present, is seasoned veteran in the publicity and media services industry , with more than a decade of being instrumental in the growth of small and medium-scale corporate groups. My biggest accomplishments include media publicity campaigns for the Asia Pacific Congress on Diseases of the Chest attended by hundreds of medical professionals worldwide, and the First International Ginseng Symposium held at the Manila Hotel -- first time to be held in Manila and outside Korea. My business website: http://powerhausmediateam.wix.com/1
The Manila Futurists Society
We're a growing online community of intellectual "thinking activists" , the modern-day Prometheus, forward thinkers with the vision of having a well-informed, empowered, and optimistic Manila intelligentsia , discovering and creating a future world of "exponential promise" . www.themanilafuturists.tk
Futurist Charlie Kam's "I Am The Very Model Of A Singularitarian"
I am the very model of a Singularitarian I'm combination Transhuman, Immortalist, Extropian, Aggressively I’m changing all my body’s biochemistry Because my body's heritage is obsolete genetically, Replacing all the cells each month it's here just temporarily The pattern of my brain and body’s where there's continuity, I'll try to improve these patterns with optimal biology, (“But how will I do that? I need to be smarter. Ah, yes…”)
I’ll expand my mental faculties by merging with technology, Expand his mental faculties by merging with technology, Expand his mental faculties by merging with technology Expand his mental faculties by merging with technology
And with our new technology, renewable clean energy, Remove our pathogens and overcome hunger and poverty In short I am a Transhuman, Immortalist, Extropian I am the very model of a Singularitarian In short he is a Transhuman, Immortalist, Extropian He is the very model of a Singularitarian
Knowledge in all forms music, art, science and technology, Our brains and bodies all precious and any loss a tragedy Important recognitions and insights are what we should retain While we destroy all of the useless information that remains And when a person dies we lose a profound pattern tragically, And the part of ourselves that interacted with them lit’rally Religious folks may rationalize that death is really something good (“Something Good? Something GOOD? Eh?)
I think they’d change their minds if Singularity were understood I think they’d change their minds if Singularity were understood I think they’d change their minds if Singularity were understood I think they’d change their minds if Singularity were understood
I create and appreciate all of the knowledge that I know Toward greater order even though complexity I know may grow In short I am Transhuman, Immortalist, Extropian I am the very model of a Singularitarian In short he is a Transhuman, Immortalist, Extropian He is the very model of a Singularitarian
The purpose of the universe is that of all our human lives Since no aliens have come forth this much we can now rationalize We’ll spread our thoughts with nanobots that know how to self-replicate
Through solar system, Milky Way or anywhere we designate Ideas are our products that will solve the problems of our fate And new ideas for the problems we can’t yet articulate Let’s leverage all our knowledge from the returns that accelerate (Returns that accelerate? Sounds familiar. Ah yes, the law of accelerating returns by Ray Kurzweil, of course, OF COURSE!)
So the outcome of universe is something we can contemplate The outcome of universe is something we can contemplate The outcome of universe is something we can contemplate The outcome of universe is something we can contemplate
The singularity is near but I won’t be indifferent In case something should go awry I’ll do my bestest to prevent Because I am a Transhuman, Immortalist, Extropian I am the very model of a Singularitarian Because he is a Transhuman, Immortalist, Extropian He is the very model of a Singularitarian
(Yes! Singularity! Woo hoo! Singularity is here! Singularity is near! Singularity!)
Neil Diamond's "Headed For The Future"
Hey, We're headed for the future Give us some room We're gonna build a new world
Say, We're headed for the future Give us some time We're gonna make it work right
Yeah, We're gonna build a new dream We've got to make it stand tall It's got to last a long time
Lean on me And I'm gonna lean on you We're headed for the future And the future's now Show you how
Hey, We're headed for a new place A step at a time We're gonna take a long ride
Time Don't wait around forever We've got to do it right now Let's do it all together
Lean on me And I'm gonna lean on you We're headed for the future And the future's now Show you how
Lean on me 'Cause I'm gonna lean on you We're headed for the future
Come on, Lean on me And I'm gonna lean on you We're headed for the future And the future's ours
Come on, come on Come on, come on Come on, come on Yeah
What Is Futurology ?
Futures Studies, Foresight, or Futurology , according to Wikipedia, is the science, art and practice of postulating possible, probable, and preferable futures and the worldviews and myths that underlie them.
Futures studies (colloquially called "Futures" by many of the field's practitioners) seeks to understand what is likely to continue, what is likely to change, and what is novel. Part of the discipline thus seeks a systematic and pattern-based understanding of past and present, and to determine the likelihood of future events and trends.
Futures is an interdisciplinary field, studying yesterday's and today's changes, and aggregating and analyzing both lay and professional strategies, and opinions with respect to tomorrow.
It includes analyzing the sources, patterns, and causes of change and stability in the attempt to develop foresight and to map possible futures. Around the world the field is variously referred to as futures studies, strategic foresight, futurology, futuristics, futures thinking, futuring, futuribles (in France, the latter is also the name of the important 20th century foresight journal published only in French), and prospectiva (in Spain and Latin America). Futures studies (and one of its subdisciplines, strategic foresight) are the academic field's most commonly used terms in the English-speaking world.
Foresight may be the oldest term for the field. In a 1932 BBC broadcast the visionary author H.G. Wells called for the establishment of "Departments and Professors of Foresight," presaging the development of modern academic futures studies by approximately 40 years.[2]
Futurology is a term common in encyclopedias, though it used almost exclusively by nonpractitioners today, at least in the English-speaking world. Futurology is defined as the "study of the future."[3] The term was coined by German professor Ossip K. Flechtheim[4] in the mid-1940s, who proposed it as a new branch of knowledge that would include a new science of probability. This term may have fallen from favor in recent decades because modern practitioners stress the importance of alternative and plural futures, rather than one monolithic future, and the limitations of prediction and probability, versus the creation of possible and preferable futures.
Three factors usually distinguish futures studies from the research conducted by other disciplines (although all disciplines overlap, to differing degrees). First, futures studies often examines not only possible but also probable, preferable, and "wild card" futures. Second, futures studies typically attempts to gain a holistic or systemic view based on insights from a range of different disciplines. Third, futures studies challenges and unpacks the assumptions behind dominant and contending views of the future. The future thus is not empty but fraught with hidden assumptions.
Futures studies does not generally include the work of economists who forecast movements of interest rates over the next business cycle, or of managers or investors with short-term time horizons. Most strategic planning, which develops operational plans for preferred futures with time horizons of one to three years, is also not considered futures. But plans and strategies with longer time horizons that specifically attempt to anticipate and be robust to possible future events, are part of a major subdiscipline of futures studies called strategic foresight.
The futures field also excludes those who make future predictions through professed supernatural means. At the same time, it does seek to understand the models such groups use and the interpretations they give to these models.
Future Studies takes as one of its important attributes (epistemological starting points) the on-going effort to analyze images of the future. This effort includes collecting quantitative and qualitative data about the possibility, probability, and desirability of change. The plurality of the term "futures" in futurology denotes the rich variety of images of the future (alternative futures), including the subset of preferable futures (normative futures), that can be studied.
Practitioners of the discipline previously concentrated on extrapolating present technological, economic or socialtrends, or on attempting to predict future trends, but more recently they have started to examine social systems and uncertainties and to build scenarios, question the worldviews behind such scenarios via the causal layered analysis method (and others) create preferred visions of the future, and use backcasting to derive alternative implementation strategies. Apart from extrapolation and scenarios, many dozens of methods and techniques are used in futures research (see below).
Future Studies also includes normative or preferred futures, but a major contribution involves connecting both extrapolated (exploratory) and normative research to help individuals and organisations to build better social futures amid a (presumed) landscape of shifting social changes. Practitioners use varying proportions of inspiration and research. Futures studies only rarely uses the scientific method in the sense of controlled, repeatable and falsifiable experiments with highly standardized methodologies, given that environmental conditions for repeating a predictive scheme are usually quite hard to control for. However, many futurists are informed by scientific techniques.
Some historians project patterns observed in past civilizations upon present-day society to anticipate what will happen in the future. Oswald Spengler's "Decline of the West" argued, for instance, that western society, like imperial Rome, had reached a stage of cultural maturity that would inexorably lead to decline, in measurable ways.
Future Studies is often summarized as being concerned with "three P's and a W," or possible, probable, and preferable futures, plus wildcards, which are low probability but high impact events (positive or negative), should they occur. Many futurists, however, do not use the wild card approach. Rather, they use a methodology called Emerging Issues Analysis. It searches for the seeds of change, issues that are likely to move from unknown to the known, from low impact to high impact.
Estimates of probability are involved with two of the four central concerns of foresight professionals (discerning and classifying both probable and wildcard events), while considering the range of possible futures, recognizing the plurality of existing images of the future (alternative futures), characterizing and attempting to resolve normative disagreements on the future, and envisioning and creating preferred futures are other major areas of scholarship.
Most estimates of probability in futurology are normative and qualitative, though significant progress on statistical and quantitative methods (technology and information growth curves, cliometrics, predictive psychology, prediction markets, etc.) has been made in recent decades.
Several authors have become recognized as futurists. They research trends (particularly in technology) and write accounts of their observations, conclusions, and predictions. In earlier eras, many of the futurists were attached to academic institutions.
For example John McHale, the futurist who wrote the book The Future of the Future, and published a Futures Directory, directed his own Centre For Integrative Studies which was a Think Tank within the university setting. Other early era futurists followed a cycle of publishing their conclusions and then beginning research on the next book. More recently they have started consulting groups or earn money as speakers. Alvin Toffler, John Naisbitt and Patrick Dixon exemplify this class.
Some futurists share features in common with the writers of science fiction, and indeed some science-fiction writers, such as Arthur C. Clarke, have acquired a certain reputation as futurists. Some writers, though, show less interest in technological or social developments and use the future only as a backdrop to their stories. For example, in the introduction to The Left Hand of Darkness, Ursula K. Le Guin wrote of prediction as the business of prophets, clairvoyants, and futurists, not of writers: "a novelist's business is lying".
Education
Education in the field of future studies has taken place for some time. Beginning in the United States of America in the 1960s, it has since developed in many different countries. Futures education can encourage the use of concepts, tools and processes that allow students to think long-term, consequentially, and imaginatively. It generally helps students to:
conceptualise more just and sustainable human and planetary futures
develop knowledge and skills in exploring probable and preferred futures
understand the dynamics and influence that human, social and ecological systems have on alternative futures
conscientize responsibility and action on the part of students toward creating better futures.
Thorough documentation of the history of futures education exists, for example in the work of Richard A. Slaughter (2004).[17]
While future studies remains a relatively new academic tradition, numerous tertiary institutions around the world teach it. These vary from small programs, or universities with just one or two classes, to programs that incorporate futurology into other degrees, (for example in planning, business, environmental studies, economics, development studies, science and technology studies). Various formal Masters-level programs exist on six continents. Finally, doctoral dissertations around the world have incorporated futurology. A recent survey documented approximately 50 cases of futures studies at the tertiary level.[18]
As of 2003, over 40 tertiary education establishments around the world were delivering one or more courses in futures studies. The World Futures Studies Federation has a comprehensive survey of global futures programs and courses. The Acceleration Studies Foundation maintains an annotated list of primary and secondary graduate future studies programs.
Shaping alternative futures
Futurists uses scenarios - alternative possible futures - as an important tool. To some extent, people can determine what they consider probable or desirable using qualitative and quantitative methods. By looking at a variety of possibilities one comes closer to shaping the future, rather than merely predicting it. Shaping alternative futures starts by establishing a number of scenarios. Setting up scenarios takes place as a process with many stages. One of those stages involves the study of trends. A trend persists long-term and long-range; it affects many societal groups, grows slowly and appears to have a profound basis. In contrast, a fad operates the short term, shows the vagaries of fashion, affects particular societal groups, and spreads quickly but superficially.
Sample predicted futures range from predicted ecological catastrophes, through a utopian future where the poorest human being lives in what present-day observers would regard as wealth and comfort, through the transformation of humanity into a posthuman life-form, to the destruction of all life on Earth in, say, a nanotechnological disaster.
Futurists have a decidedly mixed reputation and a patchy track record at successful prediction. For reasons of convenience, they often extrapolate present technical and societal trends and assume they will develop at the same rate into the future; but technical progress and social upheavals, in reality, take place in fits and starts and in different areas at different rates.
Many 1950s futurists predicted commonplace space tourism by the year 2000, but ignored the possibilities of ubiquitous, cheap computers, while Marxist expectations of utopia have failed to materialise to date. On the other hand, many forecasts have portrayed the future with some degree of accuracy. Current futurists often present multiple scenarios that help their audience envision what "may" occur instead of merely "predicting the future". They claim that understanding potential scenarios helps individuals and organizations prepare with flexibility.
Many corporations use futurists as part of their risk management strategy, for horizon scanning and emerging issues analysis, and to identify wild cards - low probability, potentially high-impact risks.[5] Every successful and unsuccessful business engages in futuring to some degree - for example in research and development, innovation and market research, anticipating competitor behavior and so on.
The Professional Futurist
Being a futurist sure sounds like a fun job. Observe the world at large, amass predictions and inspire awe at one's visionary talents.
But is there a future in it?
According to the Association of Professional Futurists, prospects are starting to look quite promising. As companies and government agencies grapple with the seemingly scorching rate of technological innovation and change, more are engaging the services of self-described futurists for advice on how to adapt.
"It used to be there were a few superstars," said Andy Hines, a founder of the 3-year-old association. "What you're starting to see now is a lot of lunch-pail sorts of futurists."
Today, a number of corporations and agencies, including British Telecom, IBM, the FBI and even Hallmark, have futurists on staff. Scores of other firms employ them as consultants.
Trouble is, when you employ a futurist, it's not always evident what to expect. Anyone can declare himself or herself a futurist. For people who make a living at it, the vagueness of the job title can be disconcerting.
"Some people who do futures work don't want to tell others they are futurists," said Jennifer Jarrat, APF chair and a partner at Leading Futurists LLC.
Perhaps with good reason. People who make sweeping statements about the future can see their words come back to haunt them. Such was the fate of millennium-bug alarmists when Jan. 1, 2000, calmly arrived. Or of Ken Olson, founder of Digital Equipment, best known for saying in 1977, "There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home."
Jarrat thinks futurists would be well-served by instituting a certification process that establishes one as a professional. It might include an exam or education- and work-related requirements. But certification is still in the discussion stage. Hines is betting it will be in place by 2009.
Some futurists welcome "professionalization" because it could make people in high places take their views more seriously.
"Making future forecasting more of a formal field could be a great step toward moving some of the techniques into public policy," said Howard Rheingold, a futurist and author. "I'm not saying it's possible to predict the future, but grappling with what's happening today and where it's going is an important priority that seems to be ignored on the policy level."
Futurists also enjoy convening meetings. The APF, for example, had a recent annual meeting in Las Vegas, a venue Hines saw as appropriate for discussing the blurring boundaries between the real and virtual worlds.
At night, meeting attendees engaged in what Hines described as an ethnography exercise. This consisted of piling into a stretch Hummer and cruising around the strip discussing emerging social trends.
For those wanting to train as futurists in a more conventional setting, academic options are limited. The University of Houston Clear Lake and the University of Hawaii at Manoa run two of the better-known programs offering master's degrees in futures studies and alternative futures, respectively.
In many ways, techniques employed by futurists don't fit into traditional academic disciplines. Futurists, Jarrat says, aren't as dependent on numerical data as other forecasting professionals such as insurance industry actuaries or stock market analysts. Although she incorporates demographics or economic data in her research, Jarrat says her conclusions tend to be "more qualitative than numerical."
In an age of relentless technological progress, such an approach has an advantage. While computers are quite adept at making numerical forecasts, for the foreseeable future it will still take a human to interpret what the numbers mean, said Ian Pearson, futurist at British Telecom.
"Computers are hopeless at handling subjective information," he said.
Jonas Brothers' "Year 3000"
One day when I came home at lunchtime, I heard a funny noise. Went out to the back yard to find out if it was, One of those rowdy boys. Stood there with my neighbor called Peter, And a Flux Capacitor.
He told me he built a time machine, Like one in a film I've seen, Yeah yeah... he said...
I've been to the year 3000 Not much has changed but they lived under water. And your great great great grand daughter, Is doing fine (is doing fine).
He took me to the future in the flux thing, and I saw everything. Boy bands, and another one and another one ... and another one! Girls there with round hair like Star Wars float above the floor
We drove around in a time machine, Like the one in the film I've seen.. Yeah yeah...
He said, I've been to the year 3000. Not much has changed but they lived under water, And your great great great grand daughter, Is doing fine (is doing fine).
I took a trip to the year 3000. This song had gone multi-platinum. Everybody bought our 7th album. It had outsold Kelly Clarkson. I took a trip to the year 3000. This song had gone multi-platinum. Everybody bought our 7th album, 7th album, 7th album.
He told me he built a time machine. Like the one in a film I've seen, Yeah yeah...
I've been to the year 3000. Not much has changed but they lived under water. And your great great great grand daughter, Is doing fine (is doing fine).
He said, I've been to the year 3000. Not much has changed but they lived under water. And your great great great grand daughter, Is doing fine (is doing fine).
He said, I've been to the year 3000. Not much has changed but they lived under water. And your great great great grand daughter, Is doing fine (is doing fine).
He said, I've been to the year 3000. Not much has changed but they lived under water. And your great great great grand daughter, Is doing fine (is doing fine)
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